Most people believe that any hurricanes that travel northward make a landfall on Eastern Long Island, and create few problems for people in the N.Y – N.J. Metropolitan Region. However, historical research shows that hurricanes have made direct landfalls in New York City in 1821 and 1993. The Major 1938 Hurricane made a landfall 70 miles to the East, and yet caused significant wind and water damage in New York City. What happened then can help us plan for what to expect when another hurricane inevitably hits this area.
The N.Y.-N.J. region has a unique set of topographic, oceanographic, demographic and geographic characteristics that guarantee maximum damage when a hurricane makes landfall. For example, historical data show that the landfall of a Category 2 hurricane here produces damage more characteristic of a Category 3 hurricane in the South. The right angle junction of the N.Y. and N.J. coasts, as well as the gentle slope of the continental shelf in Western Long Island, will generate abnormally high storm surge levels. A Category 3 Hurricane will produce storm surge levels of 26+ feet in western Jamaica Bay. These levels are more typical of a Category 5 Hurricane in the South! The hilly bedrock topography at the shoreline will increase fresh water flooding inland as was demonstrated in Hurricane Floyd (2001). Even a Category 2 Hurricane will create storm surge levels that will flood all major airports, underground transport facilities (railroad and subway tunnels) and create impassable “choke points” across low elevations on all major coastal highways.
Hurricane winds will have a complex interaction with high-rise structures and the degree of surface paving in New York City will decrease lag time and increase street flooding. Salt water flooding will cause great permanent damage to underground power, computer and transportation facilities. A 20 Minute segment from the Discovery Channel presentation “Hurricane X” will present a scenario for a hurricane landfall in New York City.
The two hundred years of hurricane history have shown us what to expect in a hurricane landfall here. My research suggests that major hurricanes hit the Northeast not every 125 years, but more like every 75-90 years. The last occurrence was the great Long Island – New England Hurricane of 1938 major hurricane hitting one of our urban centers. Hurricane Katrina (2005) showed the scale of damage that can occur when a major hurricane hits near an urban coastal center. Unless we act on what we have learned, the impact of a major hurricane, along the most heavily developed and populated hurricane-prone urban shoreline in America, could have catastrophic consequences!
Nicholas K. Coch received his Ph.D.. in 1965 from Yale University with a specialization in sedimentology and coastal geology. In 1967, he joined the faculty at Queens College and the CUNY Doctoral Faculty in Earth and Environmental Sciences and is now a Professor of Geology in the School of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Queens College. He has co-authored two college geology textbooks (PHYSICAL GEOLOGY) and is the author of GEOHAZARDS (Prentice Hall).
At Queens College, Dr. Coch teaches a large introductory course in Natural Disasters as well as upper level courses in Surficial Geology, Coastal Geology and Environmental Geology. His research studies since 1967 have included sedimentation on the Moon, as a Principal Investigator in NASA's Lunar Sample Study Program, and shipboard studies of continental shelf, coastal and estuarine areas, as well as ground and aerial studies of the effects of hurricanes on coasts and urban centers.
Recent research by Dr. Coch and his students has shown that major hurricanes passed directly over New York City and caused severe damage in 1821 and 1893. The 1821 event sunk most of the ships in New York Harbor, raised sea level 13 feet in an hour from low tide at the Battery and resulted in massive wind damage in Southern New England. The 1893 Hurricane was an unprecedented event; it removed an urbanized barrier island that existed from 1870-1893 south of the present Rockaway Shore. Details of the geologic, historical and archeological studies that document this event were published in the local and national editions of the NEW YORK TIMES on March 18, 1997. The re-discovery of two additional L.I. hurricanes has decreased the expected recurrence of a major hurricane in the Northeast from 125 to 90 years. He recently completed a forensic reconstruction of the 1635 "Colonial" Hurricane, that nearly wiped out early English settlements in New England. Data from the study were used to make a dynamic computer model of the storm as it raced towards New England 370 years ago! Most recently, he has studied the 1935 Hurricane in the Florida Keys in an attempt to determine how some southern hurricanes undergo rapid intensification. His results were used to analyze the massive destruction by Hurricanes Rita and Katrina in the Gulf in 2004.
Dr. Coch is an expert on Northern Hurricanes and has been a consultant to the N.Y. City Emergency Management Organization and the N.Y.State Office of Emergency Management. He has presented hurricane seminars to emergency management and government officials in every county in southern New York as well as insurance, reinsurance and risk management groups nationwide. He was chosen as a Sigma Xi Distinguished Lecturer for 2004-2006, and presented lectures on his hurricane research at educational and research facilities in the U.S. and Canada.
Dr. Coch is a Fellow of the Geological Society of America and a Member of The American Meteorological Society, Society of Sedimentary Geologists, National Association of Geology Teachers, American Association of Petroleum Geologists and is a Certified Professional Geologist. Aspects of his hurricane research have been featured in programs on the Weather and History Channels in 2006 andwill be presented on the National Geographic and the BBC-Discovery Channel in 2007.
