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Online Notes
Unique
Vulnerability of
the New York &
New Jersey
Metropolitan
Area to
Hurricane Damage
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Most people
believe that any
hurricanes that
travel northward
make a landfall
on Eastern Long
Island, and
create few
problems for
people in the
N.Y - N.J.
Metropolitan
Region. However,
historical
research shows
that hurricanes
have made direct
landfalls in New
York City in
1821 and 1993.
The Major 1938
Hurricane made a
landfall 70
miles to the
East, and yet
caused
significant wind
and water damage
in New York
City. What
happened then
can help us plan
for what to
expect when
another
hurricane
inevitably hits
this area.
The N.Y.-N.J.
region has a
unique set of
topographic,
oceanographic,
demographic and
geographic
characteristics
that guarantee
maximum damage
when a hurricane
makes landfall.
For example,
historical data
show that the
landfall of a
Category 2
hurricane here
produces damage
more
characteristic
of a Category 3
hurricane in the
South. The right
angle junction
of the N.Y. and
N.J. coasts, as
well as the
gentle slope of
the continental
shelf in Western
Long Island,
will generate
abnormally high
storm surge
levels. A
Category 3
Hurricane will
produce storm
surge levels of
26+ feet in
western Jamaica
Bay. These
levels are more
typical of a
Category 5
Hurricane in the
South! The
hilly bedrock
topography at
the shoreline
will increase
fresh water
flooding inland
as was
demonstrated in
Hurricane Floyd
(2001). Even a
Category 2
Hurricane will
create storm
surge levels
that will flood
all major
airports,
underground
transport
facilities
(railroad and
subway tunnels)
and create
impassable
"choke points"
across low
elevations on
all major
coastal
highways.
Hurricane winds
will have a
complex
interaction with
high-rise
structures and
the degree of
surface paving
in New York City
will decrease
lag time and
increase street
flooding. Salt
water flooding
will cause great
permanent damage
to underground
power, computer
and
transportation
facilities. A
20 Minute
segment from the
Discovery
Channel
presentation
"Hurricane X"
will present a
scenario for a
hurricane
landfall in New
York City.
The two hundred
years of
hurricane
history have
shown us what to
expect in a
hurricane
landfall here.
My research
suggests that
major hurricanes
hit the
Northeast not
every 125 years,
but more like
every 75-90
years. The last
occurrence was
the great Long
Island - New
England
Hurricane of
1938 major
hurricane
hitting one of
our urban
centers.
Hurricane
Katrina (2005)
showed the scale
of damage that
can occur when a
major hurricane
hits near an
urban coastal
center. Unless
we act on what
we have learned,
the impact of a
major hurricane,
along the most
heavily
developed and
populated
hurricane-prone
urban shoreline
in America,
could have
catastrophic
consequences!
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